Parker Berman
In this thirteen-part series WoodinvilleNOW will be investigating and explaining the Swing States that have made recent presidential elections and what clues they offer for elections going forward
If Democrats want to continue their momentum in 2022 and 2024, or Republicans want to stop it, they will have to contend with a map that looks very different from a decade ago
With the dust settling from the 2020 election the results seem to provide more questions than answers. For Democrats, what happened? For republicans, how to continue inroads with minorities. Neither party was given the clear mandate that they hoped for, likely resulting in another two years with little legislative action. However, with redistricting coming for the 2022 cycle it is likely that the electoral distribution will begin to change, and not in favor of Democrats
2016 realignment
2020 gave an answer to the question of the nature of the 2016 election. Was 2016 an outlier where pent-up resentment and a weak democratic candidate shifted votes once only for them to return to normal in 2020? Or was it a sign of changing demographics that would hold for several election cycles? For better or for worse it seems the latter is true – suburbs that were once a bastion of republicanism are moving fast for the Democrats, while the union/non-union split for blue-collar workers seems to fade as that group backs the populous policies of the republican party and the split is more firmly down ethnic lines
Presidential Politics
When it comes to the presidency, we know little about what the race in 2024 will look like. Biden implied during the campaign that he would be a one-term president. Given that the president-elect will be eighty-two at the conclusion if his term and is already the oldest president elect it seems likely he will stick to that promise. Furthermore, democratic leaders may be eager to see a younger nominee as the party is already struggling with a disconnect between an older, more-cautious leadership and a growing, younger, and vocal base. For Democrats to keep the white house in 2024 they will have to contend with a map that is likely to be less favorable. States that Democrats have struggled to win like Texas and Florida are expected to gain electors while states like California, New York, and Illinois, long democratic bastions, will lose seats. competitive states will look different too, and below we will look at current and likely former swing states
Terms and Trends to know
Generally, these pieces will look at vote-shares in reference to the total of the entire votes cast. In certain situations it will consider the “two-party” vote, looking at vote percentages based on raw votes only for Democrats and Republicans. Winning margins are generally referred to compared with the next candidate – for instance of one candidate received 45%, one 43%, and another 12%, the first candidate will be noted as having won by 2% or as having won with a 2% margin. “Points” is shorthand for percentage points. “Red” and “blue” correspond with “Republican” and “Democrat”, “becoming redder” synonymous with “becoming more Republican”, etc. Swing voters refer to voters who may vote for either party depending on circumstances. This does not include voters that generally vote for one party but change under special, relatively extreme circumstances (such as a life-long Republican voting for Biden in 2020 or a life-long Democrat voting for Reagan in 1980), rather voters whose vote is not assured until election day.
Up through 2012 conventional wisdom has held that urban areas voted Heavily Democratic while suburbs were split with Republicans typically holding an edge, especially in wealthier areas. Mostly white Rural areas in the midwest are swing voters but have historical links to Democratic voting, while similar areas in the South and West are solidly Republican. For white working-class, union membership could be a good indicator of Democratic-voting. That has changed with Trump - Democrats have traded losses in rural areas in the midwest for solid gains in the suburbs, resulting in a shift in congressional representation, as well as creating new swing states and districts while diluting the power of older ones.